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1310633 tn?1430224091

U.S. soon to recover all jobs lost in crisis

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Set your sights on this number: 113,000.

That's how many jobs the U.S. economy needs to hit its break-even point, to finally recover all the jobs lost in the financial crisis.

Get ready, because we're about to get there this Friday.

That's when the U.S. Department of Labor will release its May jobs report, and the outlook is rosy. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect the U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in May -- more than enough to get us over the hump.

It's a key milestone, but was a long time coming. It took just two years to wipe out 8.7 million American jobs, but it took more than four years to recover them all, making this the longest jobs recovery on record since the Department of Labor started tracking the data in 1939.

Plus, the jobs that have returned are not necessarily the same ones we lost, nor are they in the same regions.

States like Nevada and Arizona, which were hard hit by the housing bust, still haven't recovered all the jobs they lost, whereas states with energy booms are well above their pre-recession peak. North Dakota, for example, has 30% more jobs now than it did in 2008, and Texas has 9% more jobs than before the downturn.

Nationwide, about 4.2 million jobs lost in the crisis were in construction and manufacturing. So far, only about 1 in 4 of these blue collar jobs have trickled back.

That's in stark contrast to professional office jobs, which have not only returned, but are at an all-time high. Leisure and hospitality jobs have also made a strong comeback, and employment in healthcare never stopped growing.

Going forward, the Bureau of Labor Statistics expects occupations like home health aides, registered nurses and retail salespersons will have the most job openings through 2022. Other occupations projected to grow include administrative assistants, janitors and, eventually, construction laborers.

Job growth is still desperately needed, because the U.S. population has continued growing. That's why breaking even is simply not good enough.

"We're reaching back to the prior peak, but one has to remember it took four years, and during those years, we had fresh high school and college graduates entering the workforce. We have to wonder about all these people," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

The country has about 15 million more working-age people now than it did in early 2008. It will take millions more jobs to achieve the kind of healthy job market we had before the recession.

Back in 2006 and 2007, the unemployment rate hovered between 4% and 5%, but that work level was associated with an overheating housing market. Aiming for that rate may not be an achievable goal now, as baby boomers retire and some of the long-term unemployed may be permanently out of work.

Instead, economists surveyed by CNNMoney now define "full employment" in the economy as an unemployment rate at 5.5%. At that level, there's still normal turnover in the job market, which is considered healthy. The unemployment rate was 6.3% as of April, and economists expect it could take at least two years to get to 5.5%.

"We don't necessarily want to go back to a 4.5% unemployment rate -- but certainly, there's been legitimate improvement," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. "It will probably take another two years until we're even approaching 5% or so."

SOURCE: http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/04/news/economy/jobs-report-recovery/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
7 Responses
1310633 tn?1430224091
If replacing all the good paying, middle-class full time jobs with bad low-paying part-time jobs is considered a "recovery", then we're doing AWESOME!

Looks like someone has set the bar pretty freaking low.
Avatar universal
Why is unemployment and underemployment and people who stopped looking for work so high if we have all of these "jobs" back?
1530342 tn?1405016490
Awesome!...
Avatar universal
Awesome that more people are out of work now then in the past 30 years?
649848 tn?1534633700
Be thankful for whatever jobs there are.

http://www.ijreview.com/2014/06/144019-results-seattles-minimum-wage-hike-deserve-big-fat-told/
1530342 tn?1405016490
No.... read below,.....

"The country has about 15 million more working-age people now than it did in early 2008. It will take millions more jobs to achieve the kind of healthy job market we had before the recession.

Back in 2006 and 2007, the unemployment rate hovered between 4% and 5%, but that work level was associated with an overheating housing market. Aiming for that rate may not be an achievable goal now, as baby boomers retire and some of the long-term unemployed may be permanently out of work.

Instead, economists surveyed by CNNMoney now define "full employment" in the economy as an unemployment rate at 5.5%. At that level, there's still normal turnover in the job market, which is considered healthy. The unemployment rate was 6.3% as of April, and economists expect it could take at least two years to get to 5.5%.

"We don't necessarily want to go back to a 4.5% unemployment rate -- but certainly, there's been legitimate improvement," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. "It will probably take another two years until we're even approaching 5% or so."
Avatar universal
Yes read below...

But the “official” unemployment rate doesn’t count men and women like G. — discouraged workers who have settled for part-time jobs or have given up looking altogether. Tracking those individuals, under what’s called the “U-6″ rate, gives a very different measure of the nation’s unemployment rate: 14.3%.

And unlike other jobs figures, the U-6 rate actually got worse in June — it went up by 0.5 percentage points.

There’s a strong argument that given the Great Recession’s damage to the economy, and because millions of Americans like G. have simply given up their job search, the U-6 rate is a more accurate reflection of national employment. Like the “official” rate, the U-6 essentially doubled between 2007 and 2009; unlike the official rate, it’s not coming down as fast.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamond/2013/07/05/why-the-real-unemployment-rate-is-higher-than-you-think/


Real Unemployment Rate (U6) For Bush, Was Approx. 8.5% In 2006
http://politicalvelcraft.org/2010/12/26/real-unemployment-rate-u6-for-bush-was-approx-8-5-in-2006-when-democrats-took-over-both-houses-currently-the-u6-is-approx-17/
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