1 out of 4 chb die of liver cancer

[FingHb]

How accurate is this statistic of 1 out of 4 people with chronic hbv will die from cirrohsis or liver cancer?  Is this statement before all the treatments were available, or are they recent.  I also read that people with chronic hb can get liver cancer with any signs of cirrohsis, what are the chances?  Scary statistics.  

Has anybody read like the average age that chb people will die, or get cancer and die?   Sorry for the depressing post, but just curious?

[hepbcurepls]

This is a copy and paste from that discussion posted by studyforhope

here is a meaningful extraction from two papers that try to estimate the HCC risk in general and with regard to NA treatment and then in the end to account for the particulars of a specific patient by calculating a risk score:

Please note that this topic is very complex, thats why it is recommended to read at least the abstracts of the numerous papers dealing with it.

Race and Genotype play a role as well.

Recently published studies show that in CHB patients treated with the currently recommended first-line nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) entecavir or tenofovir, annual HCC incidences range from 0.01% to 1.4% in non-cirrhotic patients, and from 0.9% to 5.4% in those with cirrhosis. In Asian studies including matched untreated controls, current NA therapy consistently resulted in a significantly lower HCC incidence in patients with cirrhosis, amounting to an overall HCC risk reduction of ∼30%; in non-cirrhotic patients, HCC risk reduction was overall ∼80%, but this was only observed in some studies.

Natural history studies in untreated patients have reported annual HCC incidences of 0.3–0.6% in non-cirrhotic patients, and 2.2–3.7% in compensated cirrhotic patients, with the highest rates observed in Asia

Epidemiologic studies have confirmed sustained viral replication and liver injury as key risk factors for HBV-related HCC, with serum HBV DNA levels directly correlating with the future risk of HCC [8] and [9]. Specific variations in the HBV DNA sequence, such as HBV genotype C and basal core promoter (BCP) mutations have also been associated with a higher HCC risk [10], [11] and [12]. In addition to these viral factors, older age, male gender, heavy alcohol consumption, exposure to carcinogens such as aflatoxin B, a family history of HCC, and more recently, elevated levels of quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg). Metabolic syndrome associated with obesity and diabetes mellitus have also been established as risk factors of HBV-related HCC.

Here an algorithm is given to account for a patients particulars when calculating his risk. A total score is compounded from the partial scores.

Hazard ratio (95% CI)                                 Risk score
Sex
Female 1•00         ..                                         0
Male 2•2 (1•4–3•4)                                               2
Age (years)
Per 5 years 1•64                                           1
30–34 .. .. .. 0
35–39 .. .. .. 1
40–44 .. .. .. 2
45–49 .. .. .. 3
50–54 .. .. .. 4
55–59 .. .. .. 5
60–65 .. .. .. 6
ALT (U/L)
<15         1•00                         .                                 0
15–44 1•5                                                                 1
≥45         2•6                                                             2
HBeAg
Negative 1•00                        ..                                 0
Positive 2•3                                                             2
HBV DNA level (copies per mL)
<300 (undetectable) 1•00                                       .. 0
300–9999 1•1                                                             0
10 000–99 999 3•7                                                     3
100 000–999 999 9•7                                             5
≥106 8•1                                                                     4*



Now the total risk score can be used in combo with the duration of the risk to calculate the time adjusted risk :

Cumulative risk score and associated 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B
3 years 5 years 10 years
0 0•0% 0•0% 0•0%
1 0•0% 0•0% 0•1%
2 0•0% 0•0% 0•1%
3 0•0% 0•1% 0•2%
4 0•0% 0•1% 0•3%
5 0•1% 0•2% 0•5%
6 0•1% 0•3% 0•7%
7 0•2% 0•5% 1•2%
8 0•3% 0•8% 2•0%
9 0•5% 1•2% 3•2%
10 0•9% 2•0% 5•2%
11 1•4% 3•3% 8•4%
12 2•3% 5•3% 13•4%
13 3•7% 8•5% 21•0%
14 6•0% 13•6% 32•0%
15 9•6% 21•3% 46•8%
16 15•2% 32•4% 64•4%
17 23•6% 47•4% 81•6%


studyforhope | Jun 16, 2015 Report

[imran4535]

Bumping this old thread. I've been reading a lot of studies, it just seems like HCC incidence over many years is significant. I think with Antivirals and Fibrosis/Cirrhosis prevention the rates can come down by a lot by slowing disease progression.

[man12345678]

My hbvdna is less than 20iu/ml for over 6 months now and I am only taking entecavir 0.5 ml everyday along with lumina 60k once a month.
Do I need to be taking medicine for anything else.

[stef2011]

actually we are healthier than normal population, once hbv is suppressed by nucs we are like the rest of population but healthier because we take vitamins and eat fresh organic, infact fibroscan of hbv carriers with hbvdna undetectable by nucs or immune system is lower than the rest of population

my guess is that even our hcc risk is much lower than normal population once we put hbv carriers with hbvdna undetectable, hbsag<1000iu/ml that take vitamin d3, coffee and fresh organic food

[CaptainHook23]

In the positive side, were doing our best to become healthy rather than without sickness but abusing our body. So just accept and choose to be healthy. God bless us all. Lets all be healthy.

[hepbcurepls]

what ever you would like to know keep asking. Reading old post is a great way as I read so many old post it has helped my knowledge tremendously. I also check research papers so I can get a better understanding of hep b. The group of members here are very knowledgeable, we have some of the best researchers in the hep b community on this site and also many of us are in clinical trials, ex clinical trials or working with top heptologist from all over the world to improve our condition. For example we have some members here working with top researchers or doctors for hep b from italy, usa, tawian , hong kong and all over the world. The information you receive here is priceless as most members are more knowledgeable than some liver doctors.

[jamesdc]

Thank you for re-posting this. It's very informative. I thought the point of this forum was to share information not tell participants, especially new members, to read research papers and do something for themselves. I've read research papers and even with an advanced college degree I find them them to be very difficult to understand. Are dismissive answers appropriate here?

[Lexi53]

I feel like it's so much easier to deal with it for the lifetime carriers vs someone who just got it. We are all used to it and for the most part know what to expect. Now imagine if one of us acquired a new disease we don't understand, wouldn't you get scared? I would probably be searching Google myself too. After all everyone comes here for help and support, so let's be kind to one another.

[twinboys1girl4me]

I understand where you are coming from.  There is a lot of scary stuff out there regarding HBV.  Antivirals (if needed) do help those risk factors, so in time we should see those figures come down.  This is the reason we monitor HBV though, to catch anything before it gets out of control.  Most still do die of something other than HBV, so try to not worry or go crazy reading.  Most doctors will tell you looking on line is the worst thing you can do.  I think of my grandma when I say that.  When she was in her early 50's she got lung cancer, which even now doesn't have high survival rates.  I knew her so well and if she had the Internet in her day she would have wasted so much of her time worrying over nothing.  She had surgery to remove more than 1/2 of one of her lungs and lived another 25+ years and ended up dying from a brain aneurism.  We just never know, so try to not worry and just monitor the HBV.

[hepbcurepls]

hcc chances increases with genotype, mutations, family history, male and life style. If you search the older post mike911 asked some questions about hcc and risk factors and it was posted here. Search previous posts

[FingHb]

Sorry to offend.  I am in the same boat as you guys are.  I am three weeks into this hbv,  which I probably had for many year.    I been reading nih studies, hep.org, WHO, stuff and all other that Google, Bing and yahoo puts out there.  Didn't mean to depress or make our situation worse.  I was concerned, got three young kids, and all.  Thanks.

[chihep]

We wouldn't  have time to spend reading something like that. If you really want to fight your disease please try to read research papers, try something to yourself and share your experience. It would be helpful for all us who are suffering this horrible disease. I hope you understand.

[FingHb]

Sorry just doing some reading and this is what I am coming across and wondering if you guys are reading the same stuff

[stef2011]

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25595883

vit d3, coffee cut 0.01% even more by 50%