With a condom, yes I think 1/100 to 1/50 is quite plausible. Really wide range of views here.
All in all though, the outcome for an individual is 0 or 1. That individual is best advised to test.
so in your estimate, a male wearing a condom and having sex with a female having active lesions, the probability is 1-2% per act?
Sorry those odds are male to female, they are half the other way around.
I feel those figures are very optimistic.
We know that long term couples where say the female knows they have HSV2 and has unprotected sex with a non HSV male avoiding outbreaks, then 10% of the males will be infected after a year of sex, which for those couples is around 100 instances or probably less.
This means the odds of transmission during any individual episode is about 10%/100 which is 1/1000. But this includes occasions when there is no shedding present. As shedding occurs on average around 25% of the time, then the odds of transmission would become 1/250 of infection when shedding is present. With an active lesion present, then the odds multiply on this, they have to.
No one is really sure of those odds. There just aren't that many people willing to try for the sake of medical science.
The definition of outbreak also needs some defining as the virus can disappear some time after the blisters commence healing.
I have seen varied reports on the chance of infection say at the worst possible time of an outbreak to be in the range say 5% to 70%.
With an intact condom covering the outbreaks, then probably the risk is similar to not having an outbreak but slightly elevated, perhaps 1-2%.