I think you can rely on the ultrasound, and that you got pregnant from a sexual encounter somewhere between June 29-July 4.
The rest is all kind of confusing but not very important. You could ask your doc what made him think you were further along but it doesn't really matter all that much why he guessed wrong.
I would guess the health department did their calculations strictly from your last monthly period, which was apparently off.
You don't say when you had sex with your current boyfriend but if it was very close to the window of June 29-July 4 you'll need a DNA test. If it was weeks off that time frame, it's pretty clear it's your ex's.
Only thing you can do is get a DNA test.
And only you would know who the father was, only thing we could say is to get a DNA test done at birth
Umm. Because there is no question.