Basic odds of contracting an STD

[mrbuckeye]

I am a 22 year old male and I had unprotected oral sex with a man today and I am unsure if he has an std.  It was quick (under 2 minutes), and i did not see or taste any pre ejaculate and he did not ejaculate on me or in my mouth or anything.  I am getting tested soon (when should I start getting tested?) but I wanted to be aware of the potential for testing positive for any and all std's.  I am a numbers guy so odds mean a lot to me even though i know they are not a guarantee.  He was white, in his late 30's early 40's.

I know this is something I should not have done, or at least done with a condom but I didn't and I will deal with the consequences but I am just looking for some numbers (and hopefully some data to back it up) if anyone has anything to share.  I am looking for odds as a percentage of population or per 1000 people or some basic statistics (any other demographic breakdowns would be great).  This is the first time I have done this and is not something I will ever do again so please save the lectures (unless it comes with some useful information (: ).  Lastly, what is the best place to get tested at or best testing options for me at this stage?

Thanks for your help in advance

[mrbuckeye]

Alright, thanks for all your help.  I feel a lot better about this now.

[Vance2335]

Sore throat is not a symptoms of a STD.

[mrbuckeye]

I shouldn't worry about a sore throat or anything like that since that was the only place that it could have been exposed?

Thanks for the help

[gracefromHHP]

it has nothing to do with a requirement for college - it's about protecting yourself from oral cancer and anal cancer as well as preventing obvious warts too. certainly look into  your gardasil shots since you are sexually active.  

pain with urination, discharge or a rash within 2 days up to 3 months post encounter would be symptoms to look for.

[mrbuckeye]

What symptoms am I looking for and when should they appear?

[mrbuckeye]

What symptoms am I looking for and when should they appear?

[mrbuckeye]

I have not had any shots for HPV I don't believe unless thats a requirement by colleges these days.  Other than that I don't think I would have had that shot.

[mrbuckeye]

Found some new numbers which are hopefully more accurate.  From the CDC website, I added up the potential for stds in men in my state(chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphillis, HIV/AIDS, genital herpes, and genital warts (let me know if I am missing any)) and came up with a .89% chance them being infected.  I did not account for the gay aspect for syphillis or HIV.  This would probably only change my number minimally.  So I guess thats my possibilty of getting infected if there is a 100% transfer rate for all STDS I looked at.  I have no idea where I could find a transfer rate for one, any, or an overall transfer rate which to apply to the .89%.  But based off of Vance, with a 25% transfer rate, I would have a .22% chance of contracting an STD which is 1.1 out of 50000 I believe.  Obviously this would change a great deal depending on the transfer rate

50% transfer rate - 89 out of 2,000,000
75% - 89 out of 1,333,333.3
100% - 89 out of 1,000,000 (close to 1 in 15,000)

From my first shot at this, a 100% transfer rate would give me around a 1 in 5300 chance of being infected so this is my worst possible case.

It gives me some reassurance that many people say that things are difficult to transfer through oral and especially with a low exposure time.  Hoefully I am closer to that 1.1 out of 50000.  Let me know if anyone has more ideas to make this better or more accurate

Thanks for reading

[gracefromHHP]

in general we don't recommend routine std testing from oral sex unless you develop symptoms. don't allow yourself to obsess over this , follow up should you develop any symptoms and in the future, only have protected sexual contact.

have you had your gardasil shots to protect against hpv?

grace

[mrbuckeye]

I did not notice anything wrong with the penis and it had nothing coming out of it.  I know this doesn't mean he couldn't have been infected though.  What are the symptoms I should be looking for that would tell me I need to get tested? (sore throat, etc)  If I feel no symptoms and still get tested, is it better to wait 3 to 6 months so it is more reliable or should I get tested sooner for the STD's that show up on tests earlier (like gonorrhea and chlamydia) and then retest again in 6 months for the HIV and syphillis?

Also, it is 1 in 1,000,000 chance of being hit by lightning in a given year.  1 in 10000 over 80 years.  This is according to the National Weather Service.  Hopefully my odds are are lower than that because I should be fine.

[Vance2335]

No, that number is too high, but even if we use that number cut that in 1/2 for men and women so .59% and then cut that down by the 1/4 (which is a conservative estimate), so probably a .1475% chance of getting a STD. Which in reality is probably too high of an estimate.

Cold would have nothing to do with it. As far as him being gay it would raise the chance of syphilis, but not enough to be concerned about and if you saw a syphilis sore you would not have done anything and it is pretty obvious to spot...google a picture of it.

If you want to test you can but you have a better chance of getting hit by lightening then getting a STD from a quick episode of oral sex.

[Vance2335]

No, that number is too high, but even if we use that number cut that in 1/2 for men and women so .59% and then cut that down by the 1/4 (which is a conservative estimate), so probably a .1475% chance of getting a STD. Which in reality is probably too high of an estimate.

Cold would have nothing to do with it. As far as him being gay it would raise the chance of syphilis, but not enough to be concerned about and if you saw a syphilis sore you would not have done anything and it is pretty obvious to spot...google a picture of it.

If you want to test you can but you have a better chance of getting hit by lightening then getting a STD from a quick episode of oral sex.

[mrbuckeye]

Alright thanks for overview Vance.  I did a little more searching and found some of the numbers to help me out I think.  Basically, after adding up the probability of infected people per 100,000 persons in my state, I came to about a 1.18% chance that any person could be infected with any std including HIV.  Does this seem to be a correct estimate?  Now, just because someone has an infection, does not mean I will contract it especially with such a low time of potential exposure.  Am I correct in thinking that as well?  You said reduce it by 1/4 so would that mean i take that off the 1.18% because that percentage only accounts for the possibility of them being infected,  not a contraction rate.   Also, I forgot to mention that I was in the late stages of a cold.  Would that increase my likelyhood of contraction of any STD's because of a potentially weakened immune system?  Lastly, I am pretty sure he was gay, so does that put him at a considerable higher risk of carrying an infection?

I am still not sure about testing, I may do it just to make sure.

Thanks for the answer and any future help.

[Vance2335]

If you want numbers what you can do is google your health dept stats. So only about 10% of men don't show symptoms. So for example lets say your area has a population of 50,000 and 300 reported cases of gonorrhea in men, well that is .006 since only 10% don't show symptoms then that means .0006 chance you gave someone oral sex who had gonorrhea. Then probably cut that in a 1/4 or so as most of the time oral sex to/from an infected parter does not lead to trasnmission.

I see no reason to test.