Aa
Aa
A
A
A
Close
Avatar universal

High risk hpv persistence

I have a lot of anxiety from possible hpv persistence. I was diagnosed with a wart (low risk) where my last possible exposure was about three years prior,  then had more removed about 4 years after that,  which would indicate a probable persistent case. If the low risk is persistent, thens there's a good chance any high risk strains I may have would be, as well (correct me if I'm wrong here). I don't know that I have a high risk type, but have have 7 sexual partners in my life, so it's possible. I'm thinking worst case, here. My continued anxiety comes from all these studies on cancer and I'd like some perspective.

A recent study says that nearly 8000 cases of oropharyngeal cancer will be caused in men by persistent hpv 16 infection. Out of 100 cases of hpv, 99 will clear.  Then it states ~ 2,000,000 people have hpv16, currently. Doing the math, if half of the 2 million are men, and 1% are persistent, that leaves 10,000, which means 80% of that 10,000 will get this cancer. That seems ridiculous. It can't be that just because you have persistent hpv16, it means you have an 80% chance of cancer, can it? What am I missing? Even if the number of persistent is actually 10%, that's still an 8% risk which seems high, given the population vs number of cancer cases.

Here's the link:
http://www.uvm.edu/medicine/surgery/documents/HPVGrandRounds.pdf
6 Responses
Sort by: Helpful Oldest Newest
Avatar universal
Thank you for your patience and advice. I'll take it to heart.
Helpful - 0
300980 tn?1194929400
MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL
You misunderstand.  What I am saying is, as a hypothetical example (note- the rates I use here are provided ONLY as an example and do not bear on the true rates or timing of HIV clearance- they are provided in the hope of helping you to understand the mathematical concept I presented), that if you started from zero because 1% of HPV persists, if each month 100 people get HPV 16, at the end of the 1rst month 1 person would have HPV 16 infection that would persist.  The next month, that 1 person would still have HPV but another person would now also have persistent infection because 100 more people had gotten the infection and 1 infection persisted, thus now 2 people would have persistent infection, and so on, allowing the persistent HPV to accumulate in the population.  Thus at a time you measure infection and if 1% of the population has persistent infection that reflects infections which have accumulated over time and are in varying stages of their natural history, some newer, some older and some which have persisted but will soon resolve.  

Please realize that ALL of the numbers you site are estimates and there is substantial imprecision in them.  For you to focus on these sorts of things is pathological and for me to spend time debating you about an infection that you do not know you have makes little sense to me either.  

Your focus and concerns about HPV are excessive.  I suggest that you seek counseling about how to address your unwarranted and unjustified fears.  EWH
Helpful - 0
Avatar universal
Sorry for all the follow ups. To make it easier on you, I'd really just like to know an estimate of how many people have persistent high risk hpv 16. That would put all the numbers in perspective.
Helpful - 0
Avatar universal
To clarify, I thought they were saying there were 2000000 high risk cases total, and only 1% persist, leaving 10000 men (half of the population) to account for all the cancer
Helpful - 0
Avatar universal
It is very helpful, thank you. By miscalculating the numbers, it gave me a sense that if I did have persistent high risk, it was almost certain to lead to cancer, which really set off my anxiety. Once I know the facts, I easily dismiss the anxiety.

Just so I'm clear, you're saying the study actually meant that the 2,000,000 cases would have much more than 1% persistent cases, perhaps even 100%, is that correct?
Helpful - 0
300980 tn?1194929400
MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL
Welcome back to our Forum.  Your anxiety is misplaced.  Of the 2 million cases you mention, the 2 million (if that) currently with persistent infection represent a group in whom the infection has been accumulating, not just those with recently acquired infection. Thus the population is "enriched" for persistent infection.

Further, the clearance rates of so-called "high risk" HPVs appears to be, if anything, more rapid than the clearance rates for low risk types and even when they persist, not all infections go on to cancer.  Playing this sort of numerical game will launch you into a "what if" scenario that is clearly not good for you, worrying about an infection that you do not even know that you have.  

I hope this comment is helpful.  EWH
Helpful - 0

You are reading content posted in the STDs Forum

Popular Resources
Herpes spreads by oral, vaginal and anal sex.
Herpes sores blister, then burst, scab and heal.
STIs are the most common cause of genital sores.
Millions of people are diagnosed with STDs in the U.S. each year.
STDs can't be transmitted by casual contact, like hugging or touching.
Syphilis is an STD that is transmitted by oral, genital and anal sex.