Aa
Vertex stock
anyone know why the vertex stock price is going down even though there have been some good news about telaprevir of late? I wonder if it has something to do with buying that other company. Oh well hopefully good news later this month from the meeting in Copahagen and it will go back up.
I assume it's all based on money. There must be some financial reason for doing it, but I am a cynic when it comes to corporate behavior, so I could be wrong.
thanks (and yes, I always get that wrong as well). So here's another question, any idea why Schering is bothering to run a separate, non-responder/relapser trial focusing on 'the other brand' of PEG?
(NCT00845065). I would assume it's a given that pts get to mix and match their PI/Peg as they or their Dr sees fit.
(NCT00845065). I would assume it's a given that pts get to mix and match their PI/Peg as they or their Dr sees fit.
Getting approval for treatment failures first might be smart to get to market first, because doctors will then use it "off license" for naive treaters. The only problem with that though is that insurance companes may not be willing to pay.
I think I read reccently that Boceprevir is having some issues with anemia - maybe double the normal rates or so. I am guessing it will be quite a while before the "best" of the new PI's is agreed on (if it ever is), and the second or third generation may be "better" than the first I guess.
I see Vertex and other small pharma stocks a bit like speculative mining stocks. They are something it doesn't hurt to have a little "gamble" on, but not something to put your life savings in (unlike the big pharma stocks - they won't be going away anytime soon).
I think I read reccently that Boceprevir is having some issues with anemia - maybe double the normal rates or so. I am guessing it will be quite a while before the "best" of the new PI's is agreed on (if it ever is), and the second or third generation may be "better" than the first I guess.
I see Vertex and other small pharma stocks a bit like speculative mining stocks. They are something it doesn't hurt to have a little "gamble" on, but not something to put your life savings in (unlike the big pharma stocks - they won't be going away anytime soon).
I believe the dates you have are correct. There are strong hints that Vertex is trying to get early approval for treatment failures only. The Prove 3 trial results (phase 2) have compelling data for approval for treatment failures.
Could be hype for pumping up the stock, but the data is very impressive.
Could be hype for pumping up the stock, but the data is very impressive.
I don't follow the business side of this much but am interested in the approval dates. From the clinical trials descriptions of the two large (~1000) phaseIII trials in progress it looks like vertex expects final data by March of next year and schering by June. Is that the extent of the the vertex lead or are there other reasons to anticipate telaprevir to be approved first ? (excluding earlier approval qualified for n/r based on prove3)
Telaprevir has a 76% SVR rate for SOC relapsers. Is that not impressive enough for you?
The studies, so far, seem to indicate the Telaprevir is slightly more potent and Boceprevir slightly less SX in terms of percentages. My own personal experience with Telaprevir and reading the posts written by Boceprevir patients, lead me to believe the severity of Telaprevir SX is greater than that of Boceprevir.
Both drugs have drop out rates higher than SOC, but not very different from each other. I believe that in the long run, Boceprevir will have fewer drop outs.
I believe that Boceprevir will be a great success, but so will Telaprevir and it will be first on the market with all the advantages that brings.
The studies, so far, seem to indicate the Telaprevir is slightly more potent and Boceprevir slightly less SX in terms of percentages. My own personal experience with Telaprevir and reading the posts written by Boceprevir patients, lead me to believe the severity of Telaprevir SX is greater than that of Boceprevir.
Both drugs have drop out rates higher than SOC, but not very different from each other. I believe that in the long run, Boceprevir will have fewer drop outs.
I believe that Boceprevir will be a great success, but so will Telaprevir and it will be first on the market with all the advantages that brings.
In my opinion and many others, Boceprevir is the big mover with impressive results to back that status. Like someone said in another post on another day, if I could, I would buy Romark (Alinia) shares but alas they're not for sale. Anyway at the end of the day, it's all good, the PI's I mean. Does anyone know if there is any FDA positioning to officially approve rescue drugs into tx as a SOC? Rescue drugs have only just hit the radar here in Australia and the Government isn't keen to pay the additional cost I suspect. Our health system is structure a bit like Canada's. Regards Emi
Yea, you should have bought those futures! I agree with you - Vertex is a good buy even if they keep selling new issues. I think there has already been a new issue in 2009 but the stock has managed to stay in the 20s all thru the dilutions. I am well, thank you. Have not come to any decisions on retreatment yet -- I just keep watching the PI's and read the posts from the Boceprevir and Telapevir successes here on MH. I will probably wait to treat with a local GI here as soon as the PI's hit the market, and the hepatologist in Dallas has agreed to be a consultant as needed. I was scheduled to be interviewed for the Telaprevir trial in December but the clinic did not get the r/r trial. They have so many people on the r/r waiting list and all they seem to get are naive trials. So, I wait. Life goes on, eh?
Kathy
Kathy
You are certainly correct about dangers to Vertex and nothing is certain until the money is in your bank.
That said, all good investments are made on probability and guesswork. Vertex is likely to get approval before anyone else and they have more drugs in the pipeline. Their philosophy is to use the money from Telaprevir to fund additional development.
Investing in any small company stock is a high risk, but has the possibility of a large payback. I will sell 80% of my Vertex stock once the drug is approved and the stock moves higher.
That said, all good investments are made on probability and guesswork. Vertex is likely to get approval before anyone else and they have more drugs in the pipeline. Their philosophy is to use the money from Telaprevir to fund additional development.
Investing in any small company stock is a high risk, but has the possibility of a large payback. I will sell 80% of my Vertex stock once the drug is approved and the stock moves higher.
I just don't think Schering-Plough is going to happily let their market be taken by an upstart.They have the realtionships / reputation already, and have a bunch of drugs in the pipeline that are every bit as exciting as this upstarts. I'd put my money on them.
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/24042009/323/update-1-schering-hepatitis-c-drug-shows-early-promise.html
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/24042009/323/update-1-schering-hepatitis-c-drug-shows-early-promise.html
Interesting Andimano1 - I wonder how much they will retain of the profits? I have seen deals like this canceled before as well for little compensation (another reason to be careful).
If you look at any pharma company big or small, you will find many interesting molecules / treatments. Big pharma is sitting on a lot of treatments that are being held back from the public, to maximize patent lifes / returns. The model we are getting more and more, is big pharma providing the seed money (with milestone conditions, etc.) to secure the rights, then making the decision whether to continue or quit. They let the little guys take the risks, and pull the strings from a distance.
Telaprevir is one of a number of drugs that will soon come on stream. If it is first to market, it may secure an advantage initially, but there will be other drugs close behind that may be more efficient, or have less side effects. The winner profit wise may not be the company with the best drug, or first to market, but rather, the company that does the best job at commercializing.
If you look at any pharma company big or small, you will find many interesting molecules / treatments. Big pharma is sitting on a lot of treatments that are being held back from the public, to maximize patent lifes / returns. The model we are getting more and more, is big pharma providing the seed money (with milestone conditions, etc.) to secure the rights, then making the decision whether to continue or quit. They let the little guys take the risks, and pull the strings from a distance.
Telaprevir is one of a number of drugs that will soon come on stream. If it is first to market, it may secure an advantage initially, but there will be other drugs close behind that may be more efficient, or have less side effects. The winner profit wise may not be the company with the best drug, or first to market, but rather, the company that does the best job at commercializing.
I also read an article in The New Yorker, about two issues ago, about a new therapy Vertex is testing for cystic fibrosis - and other diseases down the line. It's worth reading if you have or contemplate buying Vertex stock.
Vertex has already signed a deal with Johnson and Johnson to commercialize Telaprevir.
Small pharma stocks are highly speculative. There are a lot more failed small pharma companies than ones that have done well. I have a client that has essentially failed, not because their drugs are bad, but because they don't have the commercial presence that the giant pharma companies do, to take the drug to commercialization (it turned out the giants also had similar drugs in development as well).
It is not going to be easy for Vertex. There are a few possibilities:
1. They commercialize the drug themselves. This is much easier said than done.
2. They license it to big pharma. The returns won't be great then though.
3. They sell to big pharma - again, limits the blockbuster upside
4. Big pharma takes the market, and they get walked over (which happened to my client).
Vertex could succeed, but people need to understand, it is not just about the quality of the drug, it is also about the abilities of the company to take it to the next stage, and in my experience, many small pharma companies are unable to do that.
It is not going to be easy for Vertex. There are a few possibilities:
1. They commercialize the drug themselves. This is much easier said than done.
2. They license it to big pharma. The returns won't be great then though.
3. They sell to big pharma - again, limits the blockbuster upside
4. Big pharma takes the market, and they get walked over (which happened to my client).
Vertex could succeed, but people need to understand, it is not just about the quality of the drug, it is also about the abilities of the company to take it to the next stage, and in my experience, many small pharma companies are unable to do that.
I didn't buy any calls, but I probably should have. Vertex has sold additional stock and diluted the shareholders, but I think they are still a good buy. They should be the first to get FDA approval and that puts them in a good position. There is a chance they will get approval for treatment failures early and that would send the stock up more. Most importantly, that would help many people like me before the trial that failed treatment and are running out of time.
How are you? I haven't seen you posting for a while.
Eric
How are you? I haven't seen you posting for a while.
Eric
Yes, the results presented to the EASL were very promising for relapsers but I wouldn't by calls if I were you. They keep on selling new issues. I bought after one EASL conference when the shares were probably at their all time high (story of my life) and it went right back down . Remember the presentations at these conferences are still like big advertising gimics. STill, I like to have some (stock) to stay abreast of the game.
frijole
frijole
I have traded it a few times. I bought some Monday morning. I should have bought calls, but I didn't think of it. Perhaps I will tomorrow.
It certainly is very effective; it cured me and that was a low probability before Telaprevir. I am curious to see what happens when Vertex tries the 4 week lead in with SOC.
It certainly is very effective; it cured me and that was a low probability before Telaprevir. I am curious to see what happens when Vertex tries the 4 week lead in with SOC.
Yes, I also see vertex stock is up. I knew it would go up with a favorable EASL report. I invested in it after I saw how fast it eradicated the virus in me. 8 million to UNDE in less then 3 weeks! I did the test at 3 weeks but the virus was probably gone after a few days. This stuff is potent !
Vertex is up big time after the EASL release. It looks more potent than Boceprevir. The results from Prove 3 are outstanding for people that relapsed.
politicians castigating pharma...
Whoa! And I thought that episode with the pages was bad.....this sounds worse.
Whoa! And I thought that episode with the pages was bad.....this sounds worse.
It's called dilution. Three times in the past maybe two years, the company has diluted the stock. That is, they have sold new shares. Twice, to the open market, and this last time they traded money and stock for a company they acquired. To me these aren't bad things, but they do decrease the per share value.
Each time they sold new shares it was to increase revenue for research. So, the money is being used to get the bugs out of the product -- hopefully that means get rid of the element that causes the severe rashing.
This last time -- the company purchased also has a Hep C drug being tested. It could be argued they bought them out to get rid of the competition, but I have read that they are hopeful this purchase could add to their research -- adding a new compound to the mix.
If you are in for the long run, it is still probably a good buy. Maybe you could watch it and just buy at the beginning of the run up -- which hopefully will come when Telaprevir hits the market. --- Ha ha - I have hedged my bet and bought shares of both Vertex and Schering Plough (Boceprevir)
frijole
Each time they sold new shares it was to increase revenue for research. So, the money is being used to get the bugs out of the product -- hopefully that means get rid of the element that causes the severe rashing.
This last time -- the company purchased also has a Hep C drug being tested. It could be argued they bought them out to get rid of the competition, but I have read that they are hopeful this purchase could add to their research -- adding a new compound to the mix.
If you are in for the long run, it is still probably a good buy. Maybe you could watch it and just buy at the beginning of the run up -- which hopefully will come when Telaprevir hits the market. --- Ha ha - I have hedged my bet and bought shares of both Vertex and Schering Plough (Boceprevir)
frijole
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