It sounds like you had only genital contact before the condom was in place. That brief contact might have carried a tiny risk for STDs transmitted from skin to skin, like herpes, but not enough to worry about. Equally important, the symptom you describe is not possibly due to herpes. Most likely you are noticing some minor anatomic variation in your penile skin that probably has always been there. Even if it is new, it isn't herpes. To your specific questions:
1) Extremely low, probably zero for all practical purposes.
2) It's a bit early, but herpes symptoms could start at 44 hours. But as I said, herpes doesn't cause the sort of thing you describe.
3,4) No, this is not how herpes starts. It would begin with definite red bumps, probably more than one of them; and within 1-2 days would become blisters filled with clear fluid (not "white bumps"). There would be pain and/or itching.
5) You should not expect those other symptoms, since you don't have herpes. When such symptoms accompany herpes, they could start anywhere from 2 days to the next week.
6) Blood tests start to become positive at 2-3 weeks, but it often takes up to 3 months.
If you develop more specific evidence of herpes, i.e. painful red bumps that become blister-like over the next 2-3 days, of course see a health care provider promptly. But almost certainly that won't happen, in which case you can just move on without worries about herpes or other STDs.
Best wishes-- HHH, MD
Thanks for the quick reply. I had made an appointment with a dermatologist before submitting the question and I just returned.
He also said it was unlikely to be an STD since there was no pain, discharge, crustiness, etc. He made the same comment about how herpes would have more than one affected area.
He said that it looked like something caused by friction which makes sense based on what happened. And in the unlikely case that it got worse, he said to return. He gave me a sample of something to apply to the spot for 10-14 days.
I was in the office waiting for the appointment to start when i read your answer on my phone. That definitely took a lot of stress off. Now I'm even more relieved. Thank you very much.