Worried about HIV infection

[springwater12]

Hi,

I'll get straight to the point. I'm a homosexual male, usually bottom. My last STD screen (including HIV) was about 6 months ago and negative. Since then I've had protected anal intercourse about 4 times.

Last saturday night I got really drunk and went home with another guy I had met that night. We fooled around for a bit, and then he put his **** in me without a condom on. I was drunk and stupid, and let it go for about 2 minutes or so (hard to remember exactly how long) before asking him to put a condom on which he did straight away. He never came in me, and from what i remember of the night and subsequent morning was a guy that didn't have any precum (or at least did not produce enough for it to be visible/noticable. There was no bleeding that i noticed either that night or following my next bowel motion. We had sex another 2 times that night and morning, both of which were protected from the beginning.

I do not know his HIV status for certain, though he told me he was clean and that "he could never [give HIV] to another person, he couldn't live with it". I'm considering asking him directly if he's had an STD screen before.

I've attempted to calculate my own risk based on this scenario, which I've worked out to roughly 1/37 500:

1/75 = risk of him having HIV based on demographic data for my location (Queensland, Australia) and HIV prevalence in the gay community

1/200 = risk of transmission from one exposure involving receptive anal intercourse with an infected partner, and then modifying this risk to about 1/500 due to the fact that he didn't *** in me, and was only unprotected for about two minutes.

75 x 500 = 1 in 37 500 chance

Is this risk assessment reasonably accurate? Yes I realise I'm quite paranoid, and that it was a stupid error in judgement that after this will certainly not happen again. Also being a medical student myself I've seen first hand what this virus, the treatment, and AIDS can do which makes me even more worried.

Thanks for any responses
- Josh

[springwater12]

Sigh I didn't mean to create an argument...

I realise the only way to know my status is by getting tested, which I will definately be doing in a few weeks. In the meantime, I am simply trying to reason with my paranoid fears. While I understand that probabilities cannot apply to my exact situation, it is useful to get an idea of the orders of magnitude involved, in order to quantify how risky my exposure was. The risk given my circumstance is certainly not 1/10, or 1/100, it is much lower than that.

I already know the facts and what I need to do. I came to this board looking for a little comfort, but I guess it was the wrong place for that. Thankyou comp2 however.

[LIZZIE LOU]

you came with a question regarding an incident that happened 2 YEARS ago and asked if you had tested YET.
you want odds?  go to the dog track.
if you have unprotected intercourse...you put yourself at risk of not only hiv but other stds as well.  the only way to know your status is by testing...NOT by symptoms...NOT by odds.

[jhguy011]

The risk factors are what Teak and LIzzie Lou and others have been saying all along:

-unprotected vaginal intercourse
-unprotected anal intercourse
-IV drug works sharing
-mother-to-child

There aren't mathematical probabilities.  You simply test when you fall into one of the risk categories.  That's it.

[comp2]

I actually understand what Josh means...i posted and got a similar reply. I am going to et tested but wanted some information on odds/risk fators...testing can be extremely stressful. Give him a break!

[LIZZIE LOU]

regardless of the "odds"...it can happen the first time.

i'm not sure what you want (?)  the only way to know your status is to test...as you plan on doing.  a test at 6-8 weeks after exposure will give you a good indication of your status...but follow it up at 3 months for a conclusive result.

[jhguy011]

Teak is an experienced HIV expert.  He gives simple answers because there really are simple answers sometimes.

In your case, you cannot mathematically assess the risk.  You did not randomly select a homosexual male in your region to have intercourse.
You had a risk because you had unprotected penetrative anal intercourse.  You can test at 6 weeks because results rarely change after that time; 12 weeks, however, is the conclusive time.

Teak is probably admonishing you for being stupid about it because he wants you to remember never to do it again.  He just genuinely cares about everyone.

[springwater12]

What a useless response.

You give no data to back up your claim that the risk assessment isn't correct - any sources of information you can point me to? I got my values from journal articles in respected journals. It is only a general estimate that I'm making.

I don't need a lecture about the stupidity of what happened, I already stated it was stupid on my part, and that this is the first time this has ever occurred.

Finally, where did I say I wasn't going to get tested? Of COURSE I will get tested, but as you should know, testing for HIV isn't very reliable until some weeks after suspected exposure.

[Teak]

NO. Your risk assessment isn't correct and having sex without a condom is pure stupidity on your part. You had a risk so TEST. You don't make guesses with HIV.