Vertex stock

[copyman]

anyone know why the vertex stock price is going down even though there have been some good news about telaprevir of late? I wonder if it has something to do with buying that other company. Oh well hopefully good news later this month from the meeting in Copahagen and it will go back up.

[pigeonca]

I also read an article in The New Yorker, about two issues ago, about a new therapy Vertex is testing for cystic fibrosis - and other diseases down the line.  It's worth reading if you have or contemplate buying Vertex stock.

[Andiamo1]

Vertex has already signed a deal with Johnson and Johnson to commercialize Telaprevir.

[moahunter]

Small pharma stocks are highly speculative. There are a lot more failed small pharma companies than ones that have done well. I have a client that has essentially failed, not because their drugs are bad, but because they don't have the commercial presence that the giant pharma companies do, to take the drug to commercialization (it turned out the giants also had similar drugs in development as well).

It is not going to be easy for Vertex. There are a few possibilities:

1. They commercialize the drug themselves. This is much easier said than done.
2. They license it to big pharma. The returns won't be great then though.
3. They sell to big pharma - again, limits the blockbuster upside
4. Big pharma takes the market, and they get walked over (which happened to my client).

Vertex could succeed, but people need to understand, it is not just about the quality of the drug, it is also about the abilities of the company to take it to the next stage, and in my experience, many small pharma companies are unable to do that.

[Andiamo1]

I didn't buy any calls, but I probably should have.  Vertex has sold additional stock and diluted the  shareholders, but I think they are still a good buy.  They should be the first to get FDA approval and that puts them in a good position.  There is a chance they will get approval for treatment failures early and that would send the stock up more.  Most importantly, that would help many people like me before the trial that failed treatment and are running out of time.

How are you?  I haven't seen you posting for a while.

Eric

[frijole]

Yes, the results presented to the EASL were very promising for relapsers but I wouldn't by calls if I were you.  They keep on selling new issues.  I bought after one EASL conference when the shares were probably at their all time high (story of my life)  and it went right back down  .  Remember the presentations at these conferences are still like big advertising gimics.   STill, I like to have some (stock) to stay abreast of the game.  
frijole

[Andiamo1]

I have traded it a few times.  I bought some Monday morning.  I should have bought calls, but I didn't think of it.  Perhaps I will tomorrow.

It certainly is very effective; it cured me and that was a low probability before Telaprevir.  I am curious to see what happens when Vertex tries the 4 week lead in with SOC.