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HIV Transmission Odds

What are the odds of 'catching' HIV as a male if you are having unprotected sex with a prostitute.

I don't want to hear 'this is extremely risky' or 'this is stupid' etc - I want a number.

I believe this number to be 1/5000 multiplied by the % chance the prostitute has HIV/AIDS, so probably something like 1/50,000. If this number is far off the mark, please let me know and let me know why.

FWIW I have been having unprotected sex with prostitutes in Thailand on a regular basis for more than four years, I get tested regularly and I do not have HIV/AIDS (though I have contracted some curable STD's in the past, none of which I have now).

This is a serious question. I'd like to know if I've simply been lucky or if I am correct in thinking it is very, very hard to get HIV as a male, even from an infected partner, via unprotected vaginal intercourse.

Thank you
29 Responses
Avatar universal
Keep playing Russian roulette and you'll see how long it takes.
Avatar universal
Russian Roulette is six chambers with one bullet. This is 50,000 chambers with one bullet. The odds of being hurt or killed doing many things we do on a regular basis are greater than this - however because of the fear driven into us by the media and society we are more scared of this one. I think it is an irrational fear, not based on logic, math or reason but on emotion.
Avatar universal
You just keep thinking that. MOVE ON.
Avatar universal
If 'thinking that' is wrong, somebody please tell me why. That is why I posted here.

I'd like mathematical proof that what I am saying is inaccurate. Your replies here are actually the exact kind of responses I am describing above. People counter arguments like this with emotion and condescending remarks - not with logic and mathematics.
186166 tn?1385262982
wow...i am always amazed when someone comes here for our advice and then tells US how to answer.  really makes me want to help.

you want math?   A RISK IS A RISK IS A RISK.
Avatar universal
How do you think you can quantify your risks?  First off, you are basing your risk on "general population data".  Since you are only having sex with just prostitutes, then you cannot apply those statistics.  The statistics you mention are most likely based on total population and HIV infection.  Most likely, the prevalence and incidence of HIV infection among CSW's is going to be different when compared against general population data.  You are not having sex at random, but seeking out a certain subgroup/sample of the population.  
Avatar universal
may be you are immune to hiv.bcoz i heard hiv strains from thailand are more easy to transmit than those in other countries.
186166 tn?1385262982
please dont comment on other ppl's threads unless you know facts.  it tends to ADD to ppl's anxiety.
Avatar universal

Walking down the street is a risk. Eating is a risk (might be poison in your food). Driving a car is a risk. Getting on an airplane is a risk. Having sex with a condom is still a risk, just less of one.

A risk is a risk is a risk. Do you take any of the above risks?

Avatar universal
This discussion is over.
Avatar universal
"please dont comment on other ppl's threads unless you know facts.  it tends to ADD to ppl's anxiety."
Avatar universal
The only anxiey you have is from YOU NOT USING CONDOMS now you have to go through the process of being tested. 3 month post exposure is when you will be able to test and obtain a conclusive negative result. If you want to play odds I suggest you go to a horse track.
Avatar universal
You already seem to have made your mind up that this is an acceptable risk before coming hear to ask, so what was the point? Just think though, i doubt your having sex just once so these odds are multiplied if you are constantly having unprotected sex. Russian Rullett may only be 6 chambers but people dont play that game often.(lol, i assume no one plays that game) People have sex all the time and if you are choosing to have sex knowing you could potentially catch hiv and you are making no efforts to protect yourself you are playing a version of russian roullet.

Good Luck and i hope you never ever catch anything
but try using condoms they really aren't that bad. To me they are far better than even thinking there is the slightest chance i caught an std. The annoying part is when they break, i end up in this forum for six weeks.
Avatar universal
I have heard some people lived with HIV+ partners and never contacted HIV. Then I read someone had it once and got infected. So like someone said it's a gamble.
Avatar universal
Still nobody has answered my question:

What are the transmission odds? Is 1/5,000 with an infected partner accurate?

"You already seem to have made your mind up that this is an acceptable risk before coming hear to ask, so what was the point?"

I did not come here to ask if this is an 'acceptable risk' - I came here to ask what the actual odds are, I want to be certain the numbers I am basing my decisions off of are accurate. I already know that, for me, 1/5,000 with an infected parter is an acceptable risk. If that is not acceptable for you, no problem - preaching is pretty dumb when I clearly have strong opinions on the matter, nobody is going to change my mind with emotion and fear mongering - if you want to change my mind find me some statistics that say it is easier than 1/5,000 with an infected parter.
Avatar universal
This conversation is over.
Avatar universal
different sources say different things
from 1 in 500 to 6.5 in 10,000 i have never seen one as low as 1 in 5,000
these are numbers i have seen searching on the internet.

You could have found these numbers quickly by searching in google
Avatar universal
Even if true 1-50000 chance its still a chance, sorry lad, you are nuts having relation with sw without condoms.
Avatar universal
"different sources say different things
from 1 in 500 to 6.5 in 10,000 i have never seen one as low as 1 in 5,000
these are numbers i have seen searching on the internet.

You could have found these numbers quickly by searching in google"

Wikipedia says 1/5000

I was under the impression medical professionals posted here. I don't want to rely on a Google search alone for this...
Avatar universal
The I suggest you move on. Odds won't tell you anything to begin with.
Avatar universal
The google search would lead you to medical experts!
You thought this website had medical experts but the ones that you would find on google do not?

I understand the desire to see odds but i cant imagine having to worry about them every single time i have sex, its hard enough every time a condom breaks.

You really think that is worth not using a rubber?
Avatar universal
What about herpes?
do you not care about herpes at all?
Check those odds they are not nearly as low.
1163575 tn?1339482217
guys speaking about odds wont prove anything..
its not about the chances you take,its more about the PREVENTION one takes
Avatar universal
You seriously want to know the quantitative risk of sleeping with a prostitute without a condom?  Whether its 1/5000 or 1/5 is irrelevant, if you ever just end up being the "1" on one occasion - you lose, game-set-match.  1/5000 doesn't mean you get 4999 free chances, it just means  that is your probability.  People play the lottery in hopes of being a 1-in-a-million odds winner hoping their number hits, why would you intentionally try to do that with better odds than the lottery?  Answering your question, you are probably just lucky (so far).

Here's the problem, there is no mathematical answer to your question because:
1)  Every situation is unique and different - oral, vaginal, breasts lactating, her period, etc.
2)  Your risk factors are personally unique - do you have any cuts, is your urethra swollen, do you have the flu or common cold weakening your immune system?
3)  Her risk factors are unique, what stage of the virus is she in?  Does she know she's positive and if so, does she want to make you positive?  (YEAH, IT HAPPENS!)

It makes me sick to know that I'm paranoid for myself after 2 stupid mistakes over 4 months ago and you are trying to game the system.  Wake up man, before your questions are when you are hoping for an HIV- test result, at the very least USE A CONDOM.  I hope these 'numbers' help.
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