Odds of infection

[quickadvice]

Hi,

I know that some people do not like to discuss odds (or numbers), but can someone who does not mind confirm that I am doing the math correctly here:

I had a condom break during insertive anal sex. The risk of HIV acquisition is theoretically 6.5 out of 10,000 (.065%) assuming he was HIV positive. I do not know him, and cannot get in touch with him. He claimed that he was negative, but I obviously do not know the truth. I do know that he lives in Chelsea though.

Anyway, I am currently on PEP. But I am assuming an 85% chance that PEP would work to fend off an HIV infection (assuming infection).

Given the .065% general rate of infection for insertive anal sex, and the 85% reduction of this, should I be able to breathe a bit easier? I am extremely worried, and will certainly test 6 weeks and 3 months after my last PEP doses. That said, it could be a bit alleviating if my math is correct here. Am I correct in assuming that I most likely will not acquire HIV from this incident?

Thank you

[Webbers]

Frankly, you can talk odds all day long but it would only give you a possible outcome not a definite answer. It's pretty pointless therefore to try so hard to calculate because you could be wrong, you could be right, no one knows for sure. The only way to know if you have the virus is to test. Period. That's it. It's your only definitive.

[Teak]

Odds are for race tracks not for judging one's risk.